Blog by Michael Clay

Polish GDP to Grow 3.1% in 2010: IMF

The Polish economy is likely to grow 3.1% this year and 3.5% next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report.

Poland should continue structural reforms, make the structure of public finances more flexible and complete reforms of its pension system, International Monetary Fund analysts said.

In an early draft of next year’s budget, the government assumes GDP will grow 3.5% and average annual inflation will rise 2.3% , the PAP news agency reported.

The government expects domestic demand to be the main driver of economic growth in 2010, according to PAP.

Government experts believe exports remain something of an unknown, with many risks to the European growth outlook, PAP said.

It added that the government expected the zloty to appreciate as sentiment on global financial markets calms down and the economy returns to a path of growth.

Poland must avoid tax hikes and focus on spending cuts, including adjustments to legislatively fixed spending, according to Finance Ministry documents cited by PAP.

Under the Polish constitution, the 2011 budget must be put to parliament by the end of September.

Polish Exports Gaining Momentum

Polish export is accelerating, with the Q1 2010 growth amounting to 14% y/y while the respective y/y figure for January-February stood at 7.4%, Puls Biznesu daily writes.

The situation of Polish exporters is improving and will continue to do so, Raiffeisen Bank economist Marta Petka-Zagajewska told the daily.

The majority of the countries Poland exports to are recovering and, so their demand for Polish products will increase; secondly, the Greek debt problems weakened the zloty, which gave Polish exporters a temporary competitive advantage, Petka-Zagajewska said.

What an excellent result for Poland and it's exporters. Just what Poland needs to maintain their position as the leading economy in Europe.

Unfortunately, not such good news for the UK where we still need more impetus on exporting and we should perhaps take a leaf out of the book from poland.  At present the UK is the 4th largest export market for Poland but Poland is only the 7th largest export market for the UK.

This disparity must end and more effort should be made by British exporters to look more closely at the Eastern Europe market and especially at Poland with it's 38 Million population.

Perhaps the new UK Coalition Government will give some incentives to UK exporters to 'DRIVE' Britain forward and help the UK economy n the way it NEEDS to be helped. We need to support all sectors of the export market but very importantly we need to help the SME sector the most.

The Uk SME market represents one of the most important parts of the Uk economy and failure to support these businesses will not help Britain to 'Change'

The time is NOW!. We must export more from the UK and we must look towards the new markets.

Poland to Receive Over EUR 10 bn From Cohesion Funds

Poland will receive EUR 10.2 bln from the EU cohesion fund in 2011, according to the draft EU budget accepted by the European Commission on Tuesday.

The total pool of cohesion and structural funds in 2011 will amount to EUR 42 bln out of a EUR 142 bln budget, i.e. 17% more than in 2010.

The draft budget assumes an unprecedented increase in spending on cohesion policy in 2007-2013 financial perspective, Commissioner for Financial Programming and Budget Janusz Lewandowski said.

"Cohesion policy is anti-crisis policy," he added.

These funds from the EU are a wonderful opportunity for Poland to develop the infrastructure and ensure a firm place for the future BUT somehow the process of spending this funding is taking on a very slow processing system.

Unless the powers that be, begin to work much more quickly at utilising these funds and spending them on a properly planned basis, the money will be withdrawn. It is a question of 'Use it' or 'Lose it

The time has surely come for the spending of this money and not the constant delays and indecision which are plaguing the system.

Poland's Euro Adoption in 2015 Seen Possible" - Dep FinMin

Poland's adoption of single European currency in 2015 is "realistic", but is not a "target", deputy Finance Minister Ludwik Kotecki told reporters.
"Once this target is set, it has to be credible," he added.

Back in 2008, Poland declared it would enter the euro-zone in 2012, but had to abandon the plans due to the global economic prices. Ever since, government officials have been reluctant to name any dates for potential euro adoption.

It seems that the date by which Poland finally does join the single European currency is once more being considered as a further delay. We were all expecting this to take place in 2012 - the so called ' Golden Year' as it would coincide with the 2012 UEFA football being hosted by Poland and the Ukraine.

Now however, we hear that there are no targat dates set - once again no one wants to make a commitment - perhaps 2015 will be the date  and in view of the Polish economy and the way in which Poland is leading Europe right now, it deserves to make it sooner rather than later.

Poland's GDP to Grow by 2.75 pct This Year – IMF Forecast

Poland's economy is expected to grow by 2.75% in 2010 and 3.25% in 2011, the latest IMF forecast shows.

"We expect a revival in the domestic demand, especially in public investments," IMF noted. "The economy is still below potential and wage growth is limited by increased unemployment."

IMF expects inflation to be contained, the report also noted.

All the signs are right for Poland and yet still the British Exports to Poland are at a low level. WHEN will the British SME's and even larger firms realise that the potential to do business in Poland is just waiting for them to take action.

Now is such an ideal time for businesses to open up in Poland - now more than ever is the time to establish a business in Poland or export product there whilst UK sterling prices are at an all time low.

Please do contact us at Export Poland for a free consultancy on YOUR opportunity in Poland - you may be surprised at the result.

European Commission Predicts Poland's GDP Growth Highest in EU

Poland's GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2010 versus 1.8% forecast earlier, while HICP is seen at 2.3% vs November assumption for 1.9%, the European Commission's revised forecast shows.

"The recovery would continue to be driven by exports, which will benefit from the rebound in external demand and the lagging positive effects of the past exchange rate depreciation," the interim forecast reads.

The FX effect will however gradually fade away and domestic demand will become the main driver of growth in 2010, the forecast reads on.
Investment is projected to recover slowly after the drop recorded in 2009, which will reflect "robust public spending in capital expenditure, firming-up production expectations and improved perception of the Polish economy among foreign investors," the EC forecasts.

"Private consumption is expected to contribute moderately positively to growth," supported by a marked increase in social transfers and better-than-expected developments in the labor market.

Poland's 2009 GDP Grows 1.7 pct y/y

Poland's GDP grew an estimated 1.7% year-on-year in 2009, slightly above expectations for 1.6%, while investments fell 0.3% with domestic demand down by 0.9%, the stats office GUS reported yesterday citing preliminary estimates.

The data are a bit better than expected and suggest that the economy grew about 3.2% year on year [in Q4]. This isn't especially controversial given the data on production, sales and construction that we've had. BNP Paribas analyst Michal Dybuła told PAP news agency.

The story we hear every day confirms that Poland has come through this past two years not entirely unscathed but nevertheless in amazing shape. Economically, Poland has really surpassed all expectations, for when the Global Crisis started, no one had even thought of the way in which the world would change.

The majority of EU members and the rest of the Western World never saw their economy grow during the past 12 months and it is really a credit to Poland and it's Government that the results we see now are confirmed to be BETTER than had been anticipated.

NOW is the time for British exporters to take advantage and begin to view Poland as an exciting place to export to. Where the value of the British product is considered to be high whilst the real costs are LOW due to the value of the POUND on the world money market.

I plead with British manufacturers and those supplying goods and services - LOOK AT POLAND - this is a country that wants to buy from you - you are just turning a blind eye and losing this wonderful opportunity.

Polish Businessmen Take Their Businesses Out of Poland

The number of Polish companies deciding to register companies outside Poland grew 20% y/y to over 4k annually, the daily Puls Biznesu writes citing Polish trust companies association SPP's data.

Poles register their business abroad to save on taxes or take advantage of better conditions for business, trust company Opustrust CEO Agnieszka Rzepecka told the daily.

Perhaps Polish companies realise the potential of exporting and trading overseas more than their British counterparts do at the moment. The ease with which Polish companies can set up in the UK is just one example of why Polish exports are on the increase and British exports to Poland are reducing year on year.

Why is it that the British Exporter FAILS to see the opportunity that is staring themin the face by exporting to Poland? With sterling at such a low value the opportunity is sitting there for the UK companies to grab with both hands - yet they fail to do so. WHY?

Perhaps the new ' Business Incubator' service which Export Poland has just started will help to resolve this. With the Business Incubator, British and overseas companies can be trading in Poland within 48 hours of setting up with a Company, Bank account and all relevant tax registrations. They will look after every aspect of the incubation and create the business opportunity for the company as well.

Contact Michael Clay for more details:-

Poland CEE Region's Leader in Attracting FDI: Ernst &Young

Poland has become the CEE region's leader in attracting foreign investments, having taken over Russia and Romania, consultancy Ernst & Young's report on European attractiveness for investors in 2009 showed, Puls Biznesu writes.

The accumulated FDI in Poland amounted to USD 161.4 bln by end-2008, a value higher than the one in the Czech Republic or Denmark, UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2008 revealed.

This is just one more example of how Poland has become one of the SuperPowers in the European market and a recent report by HSBC clearly shows how well Poland has coped with this recession.

 As more and more evidence accumulates of the success of Poland and her economy, with rising GDP throughout the last 12 months, the more the rest of europe begins to find great respect for the Polish attitude to the crisis.

No Chance for Poland to Adopt Euro Before 2015 - GD ECFIN Official

Poland will likely be able to adopt the euro only beyond 2015, a high official from the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs told PAP.

"Poland practically has no chances of entering the euro zone ahead of 2015," the official said. "It is a rather common opinion among economists and EU decision-makers.

Based on the EU autumn forecast, Poland will have problems with meeting the fiscal criterion in the next 2-3 years, the official stressed.

"The EC recommendation indicates that your country should decrease the general government deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 - it is to some point possible but in our opinion it will be difficult and the opinion that Poland might want the EC to change its recommendation to at least 2013 is common," the official added.

The European Commission expects this deficit to stand at 6.4% in 2009, at 7.5% in 2010 and at 7.6% in 2011, in the absence of government actions regarding the fiscal policy.

First we are advised that 2012 will be the date for adopting the Euro and then 2015 and now we have a new target date of some time after 2015. When will Poland really be in a position to adopt the euro and how will this affect it's economy?

Will the Polish people really welcome the euro?, and perhaps see the costs of everyday life increasing as they have done in all other counties that have already adopted the currency.