Blog by Michael Clay

Renewable Energy Conference London January 26th


To kick start activities for the New Year, the British Polish Chamber of Commerce (BPPC) in partnership with the Conservative Friends of Poland (CFoP) will be hosting a seminar:

Renewable Energy & Carbon Reduction
What is Poland and the UK doing about EU recommendations

The event will take place at the Radisson Blu Portman Hotel at 22 Portman Square. London W1H 7BG on Wednesday 26th January 2011 and will be attened by the UK Minister for Energy and Climate Change who will be the main speaker.

This seminar will review renewable energy sources and look at carbon reduction in both Poland and the UK and compare the developments in each country as well as the Government and EU incentives that are in place. As new and sustainable energy sources have the potential to provide energy services with almost ZERO emissions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases, the popularity is gaining huge momentum in both the UK and Poland. The seminar will endeavour to examine the progress in each country and examine the various options that are in place.

A number of prominent speakers will talk about the new innovations in Renewables and carbon Reduction

Tickets are £40 (+20% VAT) for members and £55  (+20% VAT) for non members.

Please click HERE to download the event programme.

 

Please complete the registration HERE and make payment to reserve your place.
Please see :- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEQJP_cUo_c

Poland May See Short-Term Price Growth After Euro Adoption - Finance Ministry's Report

Poland may see its general price level rise by 0.5-1.7 percent in the short term after euro adoption due to the process of rounding up to "attractive prices," Finance Ministry's report on the balance of advantages and costs of euro adoption showed.

"The rise in the general level of prices in Poland resulting from rounding up to attractive prices could range from 0.5 percent to 1.7 percent," the document read. "That result is largely homogenous in a cross-section of various social groups and the rounding up effect is the strongest with respect to goods with low unit prices (price increase for goods priced up to PLN 1 may amount to 20 percent maximum)."

The document also mentions the possible effect of "euro illusion," that is a general perception of greater price increases than in reality due to the fact that goods with low unit prices are also the most frequent purchases.

"This poses a threat of increased wage demands and a temporary reduction in consumption," the report reads.

In spite of these short term effects, the report stated that the "estimated net balance of the integration [with euro zone] is visibly positive both in the short and in the long term."

Poland's government maintains its plans to adopt the euro in a fast and safe way, deputy Finance Minister and government point person for euro adoption Ludwik Kotecki told reporters earlier on Tuesday as the government adopted strategic framework for the national plan of euro adoption.

The official estimated short-term benefits "in the range of 0.9 percent of GDP (in the pessimistic scenario) to 1.9 percent of GDP in the optimistic scenario) or - using a different perspective - 0.3-0.9 percent of private consumption respectively."

Long-term net benefits are estimated at 2.5-2.75percent of GDP or 0.9-3.6 percent of private consumption," the framework showed.

Polish GDP to Grow 3.1% in 2010: IMF

The Polish economy is likely to grow 3.1% this year and 3.5% next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report.

Poland should continue structural reforms, make the structure of public finances more flexible and complete reforms of its pension system, International Monetary Fund analysts said.

In an early draft of next year’s budget, the government assumes GDP will grow 3.5% and average annual inflation will rise 2.3% , the PAP news agency reported.

The government expects domestic demand to be the main driver of economic growth in 2010, according to PAP.

Government experts believe exports remain something of an unknown, with many risks to the European growth outlook, PAP said.

It added that the government expected the zloty to appreciate as sentiment on global financial markets calms down and the economy returns to a path of growth.

Poland must avoid tax hikes and focus on spending cuts, including adjustments to legislatively fixed spending, according to Finance Ministry documents cited by PAP.

Under the Polish constitution, the 2011 budget must be put to parliament by the end of September.

Polish Exports Gaining Momentum

Polish export is accelerating, with the Q1 2010 growth amounting to 14% y/y while the respective y/y figure for January-February stood at 7.4%, Puls Biznesu daily writes.

The situation of Polish exporters is improving and will continue to do so, Raiffeisen Bank economist Marta Petka-Zagajewska told the daily.

The majority of the countries Poland exports to are recovering and, so their demand for Polish products will increase; secondly, the Greek debt problems weakened the zloty, which gave Polish exporters a temporary competitive advantage, Petka-Zagajewska said.

What an excellent result for Poland and it's exporters. Just what Poland needs to maintain their position as the leading economy in Europe.

Unfortunately, not such good news for the UK where we still need more impetus on exporting and we should perhaps take a leaf out of the book from poland.  At present the UK is the 4th largest export market for Poland but Poland is only the 7th largest export market for the UK.

This disparity must end and more effort should be made by British exporters to look more closely at the Eastern Europe market and especially at Poland with it's 38 Million population.

Perhaps the new UK Coalition Government will give some incentives to UK exporters to 'DRIVE' Britain forward and help the UK economy n the way it NEEDS to be helped. We need to support all sectors of the export market but very importantly we need to help the SME sector the most.

The Uk SME market represents one of the most important parts of the Uk economy and failure to support these businesses will not help Britain to 'Change'

The time is NOW!. We must export more from the UK and we must look towards the new markets.

Poland to Receive Over EUR 10 bn From Cohesion Funds

Poland will receive EUR 10.2 bln from the EU cohesion fund in 2011, according to the draft EU budget accepted by the European Commission on Tuesday.

The total pool of cohesion and structural funds in 2011 will amount to EUR 42 bln out of a EUR 142 bln budget, i.e. 17% more than in 2010.

The draft budget assumes an unprecedented increase in spending on cohesion policy in 2007-2013 financial perspective, Commissioner for Financial Programming and Budget Janusz Lewandowski said.

"Cohesion policy is anti-crisis policy," he added.

These funds from the EU are a wonderful opportunity for Poland to develop the infrastructure and ensure a firm place for the future BUT somehow the process of spending this funding is taking on a very slow processing system.

Unless the powers that be, begin to work much more quickly at utilising these funds and spending them on a properly planned basis, the money will be withdrawn. It is a question of 'Use it' or 'Lose it

The time has surely come for the spending of this money and not the constant delays and indecision which are plaguing the system.

European Commission Predicts Poland's GDP Growth Highest in EU

Poland's GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2010 versus 1.8% forecast earlier, while HICP is seen at 2.3% vs November assumption for 1.9%, the European Commission's revised forecast shows.

"The recovery would continue to be driven by exports, which will benefit from the rebound in external demand and the lagging positive effects of the past exchange rate depreciation," the interim forecast reads.

The FX effect will however gradually fade away and domestic demand will become the main driver of growth in 2010, the forecast reads on.
Investment is projected to recover slowly after the drop recorded in 2009, which will reflect "robust public spending in capital expenditure, firming-up production expectations and improved perception of the Polish economy among foreign investors," the EC forecasts.

"Private consumption is expected to contribute moderately positively to growth," supported by a marked increase in social transfers and better-than-expected developments in the labor market.

Polish Businessmen Take Their Businesses Out of Poland

The number of Polish companies deciding to register companies outside Poland grew 20% y/y to over 4k annually, the daily Puls Biznesu writes citing Polish trust companies association SPP's data.

Poles register their business abroad to save on taxes or take advantage of better conditions for business, trust company Opustrust CEO Agnieszka Rzepecka told the daily.

Perhaps Polish companies realise the potential of exporting and trading overseas more than their British counterparts do at the moment. The ease with which Polish companies can set up in the UK is just one example of why Polish exports are on the increase and British exports to Poland are reducing year on year.

Why is it that the British Exporter FAILS to see the opportunity that is staring themin the face by exporting to Poland? With sterling at such a low value the opportunity is sitting there for the UK companies to grab with both hands - yet they fail to do so. WHY?

Perhaps the new ' Business Incubator' service which Export Poland has just started will help to resolve this. With the Business Incubator, British and overseas companies can be trading in Poland within 48 hours of setting up with a Company, Bank account and all relevant tax registrations. They will look after every aspect of the incubation and create the business opportunity for the company as well.

Contact Michael Clay for more details:-

Poland CEE Region's Leader in Attracting FDI: Ernst &Young

Poland has become the CEE region's leader in attracting foreign investments, having taken over Russia and Romania, consultancy Ernst & Young's report on European attractiveness for investors in 2009 showed, Puls Biznesu writes.

The accumulated FDI in Poland amounted to USD 161.4 bln by end-2008, a value higher than the one in the Czech Republic or Denmark, UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2008 revealed.

This is just one more example of how Poland has become one of the SuperPowers in the European market and a recent report by HSBC clearly shows how well Poland has coped with this recession.

 As more and more evidence accumulates of the success of Poland and her economy, with rising GDP throughout the last 12 months, the more the rest of europe begins to find great respect for the Polish attitude to the crisis.

No Chance for Poland to Adopt Euro Before 2015 - GD ECFIN Official

Poland will likely be able to adopt the euro only beyond 2015, a high official from the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs told PAP.

"Poland practically has no chances of entering the euro zone ahead of 2015," the official said. "It is a rather common opinion among economists and EU decision-makers.

Based on the EU autumn forecast, Poland will have problems with meeting the fiscal criterion in the next 2-3 years, the official stressed.

"The EC recommendation indicates that your country should decrease the general government deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 - it is to some point possible but in our opinion it will be difficult and the opinion that Poland might want the EC to change its recommendation to at least 2013 is common," the official added.

The European Commission expects this deficit to stand at 6.4% in 2009, at 7.5% in 2010 and at 7.6% in 2011, in the absence of government actions regarding the fiscal policy.

First we are advised that 2012 will be the date for adopting the Euro and then 2015 and now we have a new target date of some time after 2015. When will Poland really be in a position to adopt the euro and how will this affect it's economy?

Will the Polish people really welcome the euro?, and perhaps see the costs of everyday life increasing as they have done in all other counties that have already adopted the currency.

Economic Fundamentals Point to Stable Zloty - NBP Chief

Poland's economic fundamentals suggest that the zloty should be one of the most stable currencies in the region, although a a high dose of uncertainty exists, central bank NBP head Sławomir Skrzypek told reporters.

"The fundamental of our economy are strong and the zloty has every basis to be stable, one of the most stable currencies in the region," NBP CEO said, offering caveat for a "level of uncertainty on the market that makes any declaration difficult."

Now the Polish Zloty Returns to Appreciation Trend

Poland's zloty started gaining Monday night and will likely continue down that road locals told PAP.

Positive global sentiment, large IPOs by PKO BP bank and PGE power as well as EU funds conversion all contribute to the zloty returning to appreciation trend, Kredyt Bank FX dealer Robert Kęsicki said.

The trend should hold in the coming days, in Kęsicki's opinion.

It seems that every winter the zloty becomes stronger and very summer weaker - is this a normal trend or what is it that influences this phenomena