Retail Sales Likely to Grow Record High Ahead of VAT Hikes
Polish retail sales in December may be 13.1 percent higher year on year,
which would be the best monthly result since mid-2008, the daily
Rzeczpospolita writes citing stats office GUS' and Invest-Bank's
forecasts.
The high spending is mainly the result of consumers' haste in purchases
ahead of the VAT hikes expected next year, Invest-Bank economist Jakub
Borowski told the daily.
Can such increases in spending just be attributed to the proposed increase in the VAT rate - after all it will be a 1% increase - hardly a real hike in final retail pricing.
Perhaps this is just an increase in the business which naturally takes place every December due to the Christmas spending spree and the fact that Poles are generally better off now than ever before.
Blog by Michael Clay
Retail Sales Likely to Grow Record High Ahead of VAT Hikes
Michael Clay - Thursday, December 30, 2010
Poland May See Short-Term Price Growth After Euro Adoption - Finance Ministry's Report
Michael Clay - Sunday, October 31, 2010
Poland May See Short-Term Price Growth After Euro Adoption - Finance Ministry's Report
Poland may see its general price level rise by 0.5-1.7 percent in the short term after euro adoption due to the process of rounding up to "attractive prices," Finance Ministry's report on the balance of advantages and costs of euro adoption showed.
"The rise in the general level of prices in Poland resulting from rounding up to attractive prices could range from 0.5 percent to 1.7 percent," the document read. "That result is largely homogenous in a cross-section of various social groups and the rounding up effect is the strongest with respect to goods with low unit prices (price increase for goods priced up to PLN 1 may amount to 20 percent maximum)."
The document also mentions the possible effect of "euro illusion," that is a general perception of greater price increases than in reality due to the fact that goods with low unit prices are also the most frequent purchases.
"This poses a threat of increased wage demands and a temporary reduction in consumption," the report reads.
In spite of these short term effects, the report stated that the "estimated net balance of the integration [with euro zone] is visibly positive both in the short and in the long term."
Poland's government maintains its plans to adopt the euro in a fast and safe way, deputy Finance Minister and government point person for euro adoption Ludwik Kotecki told reporters earlier on Tuesday as the government adopted strategic framework for the national plan of euro adoption.
The official estimated short-term benefits "in the range of 0.9 percent of GDP (in the pessimistic scenario) to 1.9 percent of GDP in the optimistic scenario) or - using a different perspective - 0.3-0.9 percent of private consumption respectively."
Long-term net benefits are estimated at 2.5-2.75percent of GDP or 0.9-3.6 percent of private consumption," the framework showed.
Poland may see its general price level rise by 0.5-1.7 percent in the short term after euro adoption due to the process of rounding up to "attractive prices," Finance Ministry's report on the balance of advantages and costs of euro adoption showed.
"The rise in the general level of prices in Poland resulting from rounding up to attractive prices could range from 0.5 percent to 1.7 percent," the document read. "That result is largely homogenous in a cross-section of various social groups and the rounding up effect is the strongest with respect to goods with low unit prices (price increase for goods priced up to PLN 1 may amount to 20 percent maximum)."
The document also mentions the possible effect of "euro illusion," that is a general perception of greater price increases than in reality due to the fact that goods with low unit prices are also the most frequent purchases.
"This poses a threat of increased wage demands and a temporary reduction in consumption," the report reads.
In spite of these short term effects, the report stated that the "estimated net balance of the integration [with euro zone] is visibly positive both in the short and in the long term."
Poland's government maintains its plans to adopt the euro in a fast and safe way, deputy Finance Minister and government point person for euro adoption Ludwik Kotecki told reporters earlier on Tuesday as the government adopted strategic framework for the national plan of euro adoption.
The official estimated short-term benefits "in the range of 0.9 percent of GDP (in the pessimistic scenario) to 1.9 percent of GDP in the optimistic scenario) or - using a different perspective - 0.3-0.9 percent of private consumption respectively."
Long-term net benefits are estimated at 2.5-2.75percent of GDP or 0.9-3.6 percent of private consumption," the framework showed.
Poland Improving Amid Crisis
Michael Clay - Sunday, October 03, 2010
Poland Improving Amid Crisis
Mid-September marked two years since the Lehman Brothers bank filed for bankruptcy, an event that had triggered the worst financial crisis around the world since the Great Depression. The turbulence on global financial markets led to the spectacular collapse of a string of high-profile financial institutions and large companies. Some countries found themselves in serious trouble. Greece even faced a threat of bankruptcy.
Poland, meanwhile, avoided most of these problems and was one of the few developed countries that did not plunge into recession. Paradoxically, Poland’s international profile improved thanks to the crisis. Financial markets started to perceive Poland as a large and growing European economy rather than merely a part of Central and Eastern Europe.
The improvement in Poland’s ratings abroad is coupled with an increased interest in the country among investors. According to the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency (PAIiIZ), in the first half of this year, foreign direct investment in the country was more than 80 percent higher than in the same period of 2009, even though 2009 was quite a good year in terms of FDI.
What attracts investors to Poland is that its economy is growing despite the global crisis. But the fact that the Polish economy is increasingly open and competitive is also an important factor. In a league table compiled by the World Economic Forum, Poland is ranked 39th among 139 economies in terms of competitiveness, ahead of Italy, Spain and Portugal, but behind the Czech Republic and Estonia. Although this 39th place does not seem to measure up to Poland’s potential and aspirations, the country has made significant progress compared with the previous league table in which it ranked 46th.
In producing its tables, the World Economic Forum takes into account economic statistics and views expressed by business executives. It uses criteria such as the quality of the institutional environment, the legal and administrative framework in which businesses operate, the quality of infrastructure, education and the health service, technology and innovation. Poland traditionally receives poor marks for the state of its infrastructure. Innovation is not a strong point of the Polish economy, either. In this year’s league table, Poland ranks 53rd in terms of innovation. The reason is that there is no tradition of collaboration between business and science in Poland. In developed economies, a third of the money spent on innovation comes from the state budget and two-thirds from private companies. The size of spending on innovation is another important factor. In Poland, this spending accounts for 0.6 percent of GDP, compared with around 3 percent of GDP in Switzerland and Japan. This shows that Poland still has a long way to go to become an innovative country.
Mid-September marked two years since the Lehman Brothers bank filed for bankruptcy, an event that had triggered the worst financial crisis around the world since the Great Depression. The turbulence on global financial markets led to the spectacular collapse of a string of high-profile financial institutions and large companies. Some countries found themselves in serious trouble. Greece even faced a threat of bankruptcy.
Poland, meanwhile, avoided most of these problems and was one of the few developed countries that did not plunge into recession. Paradoxically, Poland’s international profile improved thanks to the crisis. Financial markets started to perceive Poland as a large and growing European economy rather than merely a part of Central and Eastern Europe.
The improvement in Poland’s ratings abroad is coupled with an increased interest in the country among investors. According to the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency (PAIiIZ), in the first half of this year, foreign direct investment in the country was more than 80 percent higher than in the same period of 2009, even though 2009 was quite a good year in terms of FDI.
What attracts investors to Poland is that its economy is growing despite the global crisis. But the fact that the Polish economy is increasingly open and competitive is also an important factor. In a league table compiled by the World Economic Forum, Poland is ranked 39th among 139 economies in terms of competitiveness, ahead of Italy, Spain and Portugal, but behind the Czech Republic and Estonia. Although this 39th place does not seem to measure up to Poland’s potential and aspirations, the country has made significant progress compared with the previous league table in which it ranked 46th.
In producing its tables, the World Economic Forum takes into account economic statistics and views expressed by business executives. It uses criteria such as the quality of the institutional environment, the legal and administrative framework in which businesses operate, the quality of infrastructure, education and the health service, technology and innovation. Poland traditionally receives poor marks for the state of its infrastructure. Innovation is not a strong point of the Polish economy, either. In this year’s league table, Poland ranks 53rd in terms of innovation. The reason is that there is no tradition of collaboration between business and science in Poland. In developed economies, a third of the money spent on innovation comes from the state budget and two-thirds from private companies. The size of spending on innovation is another important factor. In Poland, this spending accounts for 0.6 percent of GDP, compared with around 3 percent of GDP in Switzerland and Japan. This shows that Poland still has a long way to go to become an innovative country.
European Commission Predicts Poland's GDP Growth Highest in EU
Michael Clay - Wednesday, March 03, 2010
European Commission Predicts Poland's GDP Growth Highest in EU
Poland's GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2010 versus 1.8% forecast earlier, while HICP is seen at 2.3% vs November assumption for 1.9%, the European Commission's revised forecast shows.
"The recovery would continue to be driven by exports, which will benefit from the rebound in external demand and the lagging positive effects of the past exchange rate depreciation," the interim forecast reads.
The FX effect will however gradually fade away and domestic demand will become the main driver of growth in 2010, the forecast reads on.
Investment is projected to recover slowly after the drop recorded in 2009, which will reflect "robust public spending in capital expenditure, firming-up production expectations and improved perception of the Polish economy among foreign investors," the EC forecasts.
"Private consumption is expected to contribute moderately positively to growth," supported by a marked increase in social transfers and better-than-expected developments in the labor market.
Poland's GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2010 versus 1.8% forecast earlier, while HICP is seen at 2.3% vs November assumption for 1.9%, the European Commission's revised forecast shows.
"The recovery would continue to be driven by exports, which will benefit from the rebound in external demand and the lagging positive effects of the past exchange rate depreciation," the interim forecast reads.
The FX effect will however gradually fade away and domestic demand will become the main driver of growth in 2010, the forecast reads on.
Investment is projected to recover slowly after the drop recorded in 2009, which will reflect "robust public spending in capital expenditure, firming-up production expectations and improved perception of the Polish economy among foreign investors," the EC forecasts.
"Private consumption is expected to contribute moderately positively to growth," supported by a marked increase in social transfers and better-than-expected developments in the labor market.
Polish Businessmen Take Their Businesses Out of Poland
Michael Clay - Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Polish Businessmen Take Their Businesses Out of Poland
The number of Polish companies deciding to register companies outside Poland grew 20% y/y to over 4k annually, the daily Puls Biznesu writes citing Polish trust companies association SPP's data.
Poles register their business abroad to save on taxes or take advantage of better conditions for business, trust company Opustrust CEO Agnieszka Rzepecka told the daily.
Perhaps Polish companies realise the potential of exporting and trading overseas more than their British counterparts do at the moment. The ease with which Polish companies can set up in the UK is just one example of why Polish exports are on the increase and British exports to Poland are reducing year on year.
Why is it that the British Exporter FAILS to see the opportunity that is staring themin the face by exporting to Poland? With sterling at such a low value the opportunity is sitting there for the UK companies to grab with both hands - yet they fail to do so. WHY?
Perhaps the new ' Business Incubator' service which Export Poland has just started will help to resolve this. With the Business Incubator, British and overseas companies can be trading in Poland within 48 hours of setting up with a Company, Bank account and all relevant tax registrations. They will look after every aspect of the incubation and create the business opportunity for the company as well.
Contact Michael Clay for more details:-
The number of Polish companies deciding to register companies outside Poland grew 20% y/y to over 4k annually, the daily Puls Biznesu writes citing Polish trust companies association SPP's data.
Poles register their business abroad to save on taxes or take advantage of better conditions for business, trust company Opustrust CEO Agnieszka Rzepecka told the daily.
Perhaps Polish companies realise the potential of exporting and trading overseas more than their British counterparts do at the moment. The ease with which Polish companies can set up in the UK is just one example of why Polish exports are on the increase and British exports to Poland are reducing year on year.
Why is it that the British Exporter FAILS to see the opportunity that is staring themin the face by exporting to Poland? With sterling at such a low value the opportunity is sitting there for the UK companies to grab with both hands - yet they fail to do so. WHY?
Perhaps the new ' Business Incubator' service which Export Poland has just started will help to resolve this. With the Business Incubator, British and overseas companies can be trading in Poland within 48 hours of setting up with a Company, Bank account and all relevant tax registrations. They will look after every aspect of the incubation and create the business opportunity for the company as well.
Contact Michael Clay for more details:-
Poland CEE Region's Leader in Attracting FDI: Ernst &Young
Michael Clay - Monday, November 23, 2009
Poland CEE Region's Leader in Attracting FDI: Ernst &Young
Poland has become the CEE region's leader in attracting foreign investments, having taken over Russia and Romania, consultancy Ernst & Young's report on European attractiveness for investors in 2009 showed, Puls Biznesu writes.
The accumulated FDI in Poland amounted to USD 161.4 bln by end-2008, a value higher than the one in the Czech Republic or Denmark, UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2008 revealed.
This is just one more example of how Poland has become one of the SuperPowers in the European market and a recent report by HSBC clearly shows how well Poland has coped with this recession.
As more and more evidence accumulates of the success of Poland and her economy, with rising GDP throughout the last 12 months, the more the rest of europe begins to find great respect for the Polish attitude to the crisis.
Poland has become the CEE region's leader in attracting foreign investments, having taken over Russia and Romania, consultancy Ernst & Young's report on European attractiveness for investors in 2009 showed, Puls Biznesu writes.
The accumulated FDI in Poland amounted to USD 161.4 bln by end-2008, a value higher than the one in the Czech Republic or Denmark, UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2008 revealed.
This is just one more example of how Poland has become one of the SuperPowers in the European market and a recent report by HSBC clearly shows how well Poland has coped with this recession.
As more and more evidence accumulates of the success of Poland and her economy, with rising GDP throughout the last 12 months, the more the rest of europe begins to find great respect for the Polish attitude to the crisis.
The BPCC Annual Dinner Dance - Ball 2009
Michael Clay - Sunday, October 25, 2009
The BPCC Annual Dinner Dance - Ball 2009
Last Saturday the BPCC held its sell out 17th Annual Ball. 300 guests gathered for the 1920s themed evening, sponsored by Jones Lang LaSalle and co-hosted by InterContinental Warszawa. Coverage of the ball will be in the next issue of Contact magazine but we are so proud of the fundraising achievement that we wanted to shout about it now! Said Caroline Cook.
Every year the BPCC supports a charity at the BPCC Annual Ball and this year we organised two fundraising activities in aid of the Eugeniusza Dutkiewicza SAC Hospice in Gdansk which helps people who have progressive and life-threatening illnesses. We are delighted to announce that a record amount was raised.
The first activity was our annual raffle and thanks to the superb prizes donated by BPCC members and the generosity of guests at the Ball, this raised an amazing 7,610PLN. Second was an auction for a unique, anonymously donated prize – a rugby ball signed by Lech Wałęsa and the entire Polish national rugby team plus a photograph of Jan Kozlowski, president of the Polish Rugby Association and President Wałęsa signing the ball. The auction was open online as well as taking place live at the Annual Ball so non-guests could also take part. Expertly orchestrated by professional real estate auctioneer, Michael Clay of Davidoff Kleeberg & Maresch and Export Poland, bidders battled it out, pushing the price higher and higher until it finally sold for an astounding 10,000PLN.
“We are thrilled to have raised a total of 17,610PLN which is more money than ever before and for such a worthy cause and I would like to thank all members who donated prizes and took part in the fundraising. A superb achievement!” said Martin Oxley, BPCC CEO.
“We would like to thank the BPCC and its members for their huge generosity and support for the hospice. We provide free of charge care to over 1,000 patients every year and therefore donations like this are invaluable to us,” added Aneta Puszko, Fundraising Manager, Eugeniusza Dutkiewicza SAC Hospice.
The entire event was wonderfully hosted by the BPCC and David Thomas - Chairman of the British Polish Chamber of Commerce welcomed all of the guests before Ric Todd HM Ambassador to Poland spoke in both Polish and English to everyone also.
An excellent dinner and 1920's themed dance then took place and a fantastic evening followed. There is no doubt that everyone thoroughly enjoyed themselves.
EC Approves Public Assistance for Polish Dell Plant
Michael Clay - Saturday, September 26, 2009
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Approves Public Assistance for Polish Dell Plant
The European Commission okayed 54.5 million euros of regional aid for establishing Dell Products Poland's computer manufacturing plant in Łódź, yesterday.
The Commission decided that the investment project will significantly contribute to the regional development and job creation in a disadvantaged region of Łódź province, and that these benefits outweigh any potential negative effects of the aid on competition and trade.
The total value of Dell's investment in Łódź amounts to 189.6 million euros.
This is fantastic news for the Łódz region as Dell has already proved themselves to be one of the largest employers in the region making Łódź a huge centre for electronic manufacturing and assembly
We now need more and more companies from the UK and Europe taking up the opportunities that exist in Poland's second largest city.
The British Polish Chamber of Commerce have a Business Point Centre in Łódź which enables new busnesses to easily start up with a complete serviced office for next to nothing. Enquiries should be sent to us at Export Poland on the contacts form.
The European Commission okayed 54.5 million euros of regional aid for establishing Dell Products Poland's computer manufacturing plant in Łódź, yesterday.
The Commission decided that the investment project will significantly contribute to the regional development and job creation in a disadvantaged region of Łódź province, and that these benefits outweigh any potential negative effects of the aid on competition and trade.
The total value of Dell's investment in Łódź amounts to 189.6 million euros.
This is fantastic news for the Łódz region as Dell has already proved themselves to be one of the largest employers in the region making Łódź a huge centre for electronic manufacturing and assembly
We now need more and more companies from the UK and Europe taking up the opportunities that exist in Poland's second largest city.
The British Polish Chamber of Commerce have a Business Point Centre in Łódź which enables new busnesses to easily start up with a complete serviced office for next to nothing. Enquiries should be sent to us at Export Poland on the contacts form.
Poland's Economy Likely to Show Clear Signs of Rebound
Michael Clay - Monday, September 07, 2009
Poland's Economy Likely to Show Clear Signs of Rebound
Poland's economy is showing mixed signals and likely slowed in Q3, but should be showing clear signs of acceleration in Q4, Monetary Policy Council member Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner said of her economic outlook.
"The real economy is handling things very well and remains active," Wasilewska-Trenkner told PAP in an interview. But with headline inflation holding above the target range, "inflation pressure remains strong in the economy."
Poland's economy is showing mixed signals and likely slowed in Q3, but should be showing clear signs of acceleration in Q4, Monetary Policy Council member Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner said of her economic outlook.
"The real economy is handling things very well and remains active," Wasilewska-Trenkner told PAP in an interview. But with headline inflation holding above the target range, "inflation pressure remains strong in the economy."
Anti-Crisis Package Remedy for Unemployment: Labor Ministry
Michael Clay - Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Poland will manage to reduce the unemployment rate by 1-2 pps in the
next two years thanks to the bill alleviating the effects of the
crisis, Labor Minister Jolanta Fedak told reporters.
"If the situation in autumn deteriorates, we have a solution which will allow us to reduce unemployment by 1-2 pps within two years," Fedak said.
Poland plans to spend over 1.5 billion zlotys for public aid in the frame of the anti-crisis package which came into force on August 22, Fedak said. The money will come from guaranteed employment benefits fund.
The unemployment level in July amounted to 10.8% vs 10.7% in June, according to stats office GUS.
"If the situation in autumn deteriorates, we have a solution which will allow us to reduce unemployment by 1-2 pps within two years," Fedak said.
Poland plans to spend over 1.5 billion zlotys for public aid in the frame of the anti-crisis package which came into force on August 22, Fedak said. The money will come from guaranteed employment benefits fund.
The unemployment level in July amounted to 10.8% vs 10.7% in June, according to stats office GUS.
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