Blog by Michael Clay

Renewable Energy Conference London January 26th


To kick start activities for the New Year, the British Polish Chamber of Commerce (BPPC) in partnership with the Conservative Friends of Poland (CFoP) will be hosting a seminar:

Renewable Energy & Carbon Reduction
What is Poland and the UK doing about EU recommendations

The event will take place at the Radisson Blu Portman Hotel at 22 Portman Square. London W1H 7BG on Wednesday 26th January 2011 and will be attened by the UK Minister for Energy and Climate Change who will be the main speaker.

This seminar will review renewable energy sources and look at carbon reduction in both Poland and the UK and compare the developments in each country as well as the Government and EU incentives that are in place. As new and sustainable energy sources have the potential to provide energy services with almost ZERO emissions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases, the popularity is gaining huge momentum in both the UK and Poland. The seminar will endeavour to examine the progress in each country and examine the various options that are in place.

A number of prominent speakers will talk about the new innovations in Renewables and carbon Reduction

Tickets are £40 (+20% VAT) for members and £55  (+20% VAT) for non members.

Please click HERE to download the event programme.

 

Please complete the registration HERE and make payment to reserve your place.
Please see :- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEQJP_cUo_c

Poland Improving Amid Crisis

Mid-September marked two years since the Lehman Brothers bank filed for bankruptcy, an event that had triggered the worst financial crisis around the world since the Great Depression. The turbulence on global financial markets led to the spectacular collapse of a string of high-profile financial institutions and large companies. Some countries found themselves in serious trouble. Greece even faced a threat of bankruptcy.

Poland, meanwhile, avoided most of these problems and was one of the few developed countries that did not plunge into recession. Paradoxically, Poland’s international profile improved thanks to the crisis. Financial markets started to perceive Poland as a large and growing European economy rather than merely a part of Central and Eastern Europe.

The improvement in Poland’s ratings abroad is coupled with an increased interest in the country among investors. According to the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency (PAIiIZ), in the first half of this year, foreign direct investment in the country was more than 80 percent higher than in the same period of 2009, even though 2009 was quite a good year in terms of FDI.

What attracts investors to Poland is that its economy is growing despite the global crisis. But the fact that the Polish economy is increasingly open and competitive is also an important factor. In a league table compiled by the World Economic Forum, Poland is ranked 39th among 139 economies in terms of competitiveness, ahead of Italy, Spain and Portugal, but behind the Czech Republic and Estonia. Although this 39th place does not seem to measure up to Poland’s potential and aspirations, the country has made significant progress compared with the previous league table in which it ranked 46th.

In producing its tables, the World Economic Forum takes into account economic statistics and views expressed by business executives. It uses criteria such as the quality of the institutional environment, the legal and administrative framework in which businesses operate, the quality of infrastructure, education and the health service, technology and innovation. Poland traditionally receives poor marks for the state of its infrastructure. Innovation is not a strong point of the Polish economy, either. In this year’s league table, Poland ranks 53rd in terms of innovation. The reason is that there is no tradition of collaboration between business and science in Poland. In developed economies, a third of the money spent on innovation comes from the state budget and two-thirds from private companies. The size of spending on innovation is another important factor. In Poland, this spending accounts for 0.6 percent of GDP, compared with around 3 percent of GDP in Switzerland and Japan. This shows that Poland still has a long way to go to become an innovative country.

Polish GDP to Grow 3.1% in 2010: IMF

The Polish economy is likely to grow 3.1% this year and 3.5% next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report.

Poland should continue structural reforms, make the structure of public finances more flexible and complete reforms of its pension system, International Monetary Fund analysts said.

In an early draft of next year’s budget, the government assumes GDP will grow 3.5% and average annual inflation will rise 2.3% , the PAP news agency reported.

The government expects domestic demand to be the main driver of economic growth in 2010, according to PAP.

Government experts believe exports remain something of an unknown, with many risks to the European growth outlook, PAP said.

It added that the government expected the zloty to appreciate as sentiment on global financial markets calms down and the economy returns to a path of growth.

Poland must avoid tax hikes and focus on spending cuts, including adjustments to legislatively fixed spending, according to Finance Ministry documents cited by PAP.

Under the Polish constitution, the 2011 budget must be put to parliament by the end of September.

Polish Exports Gaining Momentum

Polish export is accelerating, with the Q1 2010 growth amounting to 14% y/y while the respective y/y figure for January-February stood at 7.4%, Puls Biznesu daily writes.

The situation of Polish exporters is improving and will continue to do so, Raiffeisen Bank economist Marta Petka-Zagajewska told the daily.

The majority of the countries Poland exports to are recovering and, so their demand for Polish products will increase; secondly, the Greek debt problems weakened the zloty, which gave Polish exporters a temporary competitive advantage, Petka-Zagajewska said.

What an excellent result for Poland and it's exporters. Just what Poland needs to maintain their position as the leading economy in Europe.

Unfortunately, not such good news for the UK where we still need more impetus on exporting and we should perhaps take a leaf out of the book from poland.  At present the UK is the 4th largest export market for Poland but Poland is only the 7th largest export market for the UK.

This disparity must end and more effort should be made by British exporters to look more closely at the Eastern Europe market and especially at Poland with it's 38 Million population.

Perhaps the new UK Coalition Government will give some incentives to UK exporters to 'DRIVE' Britain forward and help the UK economy n the way it NEEDS to be helped. We need to support all sectors of the export market but very importantly we need to help the SME sector the most.

The Uk SME market represents one of the most important parts of the Uk economy and failure to support these businesses will not help Britain to 'Change'

The time is NOW!. We must export more from the UK and we must look towards the new markets.

Poland's Euro Adoption in 2015 Seen Possible" - Dep FinMin

Poland's adoption of single European currency in 2015 is "realistic", but is not a "target", deputy Finance Minister Ludwik Kotecki told reporters.
"Once this target is set, it has to be credible," he added.

Back in 2008, Poland declared it would enter the euro-zone in 2012, but had to abandon the plans due to the global economic prices. Ever since, government officials have been reluctant to name any dates for potential euro adoption.

It seems that the date by which Poland finally does join the single European currency is once more being considered as a further delay. We were all expecting this to take place in 2012 - the so called ' Golden Year' as it would coincide with the 2012 UEFA football being hosted by Poland and the Ukraine.

Now however, we hear that there are no targat dates set - once again no one wants to make a commitment - perhaps 2015 will be the date  and in view of the Polish economy and the way in which Poland is leading Europe right now, it deserves to make it sooner rather than later.

European Commission Predicts Poland's GDP Growth Highest in EU

Poland's GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2010 versus 1.8% forecast earlier, while HICP is seen at 2.3% vs November assumption for 1.9%, the European Commission's revised forecast shows.

"The recovery would continue to be driven by exports, which will benefit from the rebound in external demand and the lagging positive effects of the past exchange rate depreciation," the interim forecast reads.

The FX effect will however gradually fade away and domestic demand will become the main driver of growth in 2010, the forecast reads on.
Investment is projected to recover slowly after the drop recorded in 2009, which will reflect "robust public spending in capital expenditure, firming-up production expectations and improved perception of the Polish economy among foreign investors," the EC forecasts.

"Private consumption is expected to contribute moderately positively to growth," supported by a marked increase in social transfers and better-than-expected developments in the labor market.

Poland's 2009 GDP Grows 1.7 pct y/y

Poland's GDP grew an estimated 1.7% year-on-year in 2009, slightly above expectations for 1.6%, while investments fell 0.3% with domestic demand down by 0.9%, the stats office GUS reported yesterday citing preliminary estimates.

The data are a bit better than expected and suggest that the economy grew about 3.2% year on year [in Q4]. This isn't especially controversial given the data on production, sales and construction that we've had. BNP Paribas analyst Michal Dybuła told PAP news agency.

The story we hear every day confirms that Poland has come through this past two years not entirely unscathed but nevertheless in amazing shape. Economically, Poland has really surpassed all expectations, for when the Global Crisis started, no one had even thought of the way in which the world would change.

The majority of EU members and the rest of the Western World never saw their economy grow during the past 12 months and it is really a credit to Poland and it's Government that the results we see now are confirmed to be BETTER than had been anticipated.

NOW is the time for British exporters to take advantage and begin to view Poland as an exciting place to export to. Where the value of the British product is considered to be high whilst the real costs are LOW due to the value of the POUND on the world money market.

I plead with British manufacturers and those supplying goods and services - LOOK AT POLAND - this is a country that wants to buy from you - you are just turning a blind eye and losing this wonderful opportunity.

Polish Businessmen Take Their Businesses Out of Poland

The number of Polish companies deciding to register companies outside Poland grew 20% y/y to over 4k annually, the daily Puls Biznesu writes citing Polish trust companies association SPP's data.

Poles register their business abroad to save on taxes or take advantage of better conditions for business, trust company Opustrust CEO Agnieszka Rzepecka told the daily.

Perhaps Polish companies realise the potential of exporting and trading overseas more than their British counterparts do at the moment. The ease with which Polish companies can set up in the UK is just one example of why Polish exports are on the increase and British exports to Poland are reducing year on year.

Why is it that the British Exporter FAILS to see the opportunity that is staring themin the face by exporting to Poland? With sterling at such a low value the opportunity is sitting there for the UK companies to grab with both hands - yet they fail to do so. WHY?

Perhaps the new ' Business Incubator' service which Export Poland has just started will help to resolve this. With the Business Incubator, British and overseas companies can be trading in Poland within 48 hours of setting up with a Company, Bank account and all relevant tax registrations. They will look after every aspect of the incubation and create the business opportunity for the company as well.

Contact Michael Clay for more details:-

Economic Fundamentals Point to Stable Zloty - NBP Chief

Poland's economic fundamentals suggest that the zloty should be one of the most stable currencies in the region, although a a high dose of uncertainty exists, central bank NBP head Sławomir Skrzypek told reporters.

"The fundamental of our economy are strong and the zloty has every basis to be stable, one of the most stable currencies in the region," NBP CEO said, offering caveat for a "level of uncertainty on the market that makes any declaration difficult."

Now the Polish Zloty Returns to Appreciation Trend

Poland's zloty started gaining Monday night and will likely continue down that road locals told PAP.

Positive global sentiment, large IPOs by PKO BP bank and PGE power as well as EU funds conversion all contribute to the zloty returning to appreciation trend, Kredyt Bank FX dealer Robert Kęsicki said.

The trend should hold in the coming days, in Kęsicki's opinion.

It seems that every winter the zloty becomes stronger and very summer weaker - is this a normal trend or what is it that influences this phenomena

Poland Sees GDP Growth in Q3 Again

Poland's economy is expected to have grown by some 1% in Q3, deputy Finance Minister Ludwik Kotecki told PAP.

Q2 GDP growth amounted to 1.1%. In late August Kotecki said Q3 result would be lower than the Q2 reading.

Once again, Poland looks like being the LEADING economy within Europe with a GDP that many of the other EU nations would just love to be able to show. How can Poland do this every quarter this year to date when others have failed so miserably?

Perhaps it is the mindset of the Polish Government and its determination to learn from the mistakes that the Western nations have made. Perhaps it is the constant message to the Polish people that they must be aware of the dangers around them in overspending.

Whatever the message is, it seems to be working.