Blog by Michael Clay

Poland's 2009 GDP Grows 1.7 pct y/y

Poland's GDP grew an estimated 1.7% year-on-year in 2009, slightly above expectations for 1.6%, while investments fell 0.3% with domestic demand down by 0.9%, the stats office GUS reported yesterday citing preliminary estimates.

The data are a bit better than expected and suggest that the economy grew about 3.2% year on year [in Q4]. This isn't especially controversial given the data on production, sales and construction that we've had. BNP Paribas analyst Michal Dybuła told PAP news agency.

The story we hear every day confirms that Poland has come through this past two years not entirely unscathed but nevertheless in amazing shape. Economically, Poland has really surpassed all expectations, for when the Global Crisis started, no one had even thought of the way in which the world would change.

The majority of EU members and the rest of the Western World never saw their economy grow during the past 12 months and it is really a credit to Poland and it's Government that the results we see now are confirmed to be BETTER than had been anticipated.

NOW is the time for British exporters to take advantage and begin to view Poland as an exciting place to export to. Where the value of the British product is considered to be high whilst the real costs are LOW due to the value of the POUND on the world money market.

I plead with British manufacturers and those supplying goods and services - LOOK AT POLAND - this is a country that wants to buy from you - you are just turning a blind eye and losing this wonderful opportunity.

Polish Businessmen Take Their Businesses Out of Poland

The number of Polish companies deciding to register companies outside Poland grew 20% y/y to over 4k annually, the daily Puls Biznesu writes citing Polish trust companies association SPP's data.

Poles register their business abroad to save on taxes or take advantage of better conditions for business, trust company Opustrust CEO Agnieszka Rzepecka told the daily.

Perhaps Polish companies realise the potential of exporting and trading overseas more than their British counterparts do at the moment. The ease with which Polish companies can set up in the UK is just one example of why Polish exports are on the increase and British exports to Poland are reducing year on year.

Why is it that the British Exporter FAILS to see the opportunity that is staring themin the face by exporting to Poland? With sterling at such a low value the opportunity is sitting there for the UK companies to grab with both hands - yet they fail to do so. WHY?

Perhaps the new ' Business Incubator' service which Export Poland has just started will help to resolve this. With the Business Incubator, British and overseas companies can be trading in Poland within 48 hours of setting up with a Company, Bank account and all relevant tax registrations. They will look after every aspect of the incubation and create the business opportunity for the company as well.

Contact Michael Clay for more details:-

Poland CEE Region's Leader in Attracting FDI: Ernst &Young

Poland has become the CEE region's leader in attracting foreign investments, having taken over Russia and Romania, consultancy Ernst & Young's report on European attractiveness for investors in 2009 showed, Puls Biznesu writes.

The accumulated FDI in Poland amounted to USD 161.4 bln by end-2008, a value higher than the one in the Czech Republic or Denmark, UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2008 revealed.

This is just one more example of how Poland has become one of the SuperPowers in the European market and a recent report by HSBC clearly shows how well Poland has coped with this recession.

 As more and more evidence accumulates of the success of Poland and her economy, with rising GDP throughout the last 12 months, the more the rest of europe begins to find great respect for the Polish attitude to the crisis.

No Chance for Poland to Adopt Euro Before 2015 - GD ECFIN Official

Poland will likely be able to adopt the euro only beyond 2015, a high official from the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs told PAP.

"Poland practically has no chances of entering the euro zone ahead of 2015," the official said. "It is a rather common opinion among economists and EU decision-makers.

Based on the EU autumn forecast, Poland will have problems with meeting the fiscal criterion in the next 2-3 years, the official stressed.

"The EC recommendation indicates that your country should decrease the general government deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 - it is to some point possible but in our opinion it will be difficult and the opinion that Poland might want the EC to change its recommendation to at least 2013 is common," the official added.

The European Commission expects this deficit to stand at 6.4% in 2009, at 7.5% in 2010 and at 7.6% in 2011, in the absence of government actions regarding the fiscal policy.

First we are advised that 2012 will be the date for adopting the Euro and then 2015 and now we have a new target date of some time after 2015. When will Poland really be in a position to adopt the euro and how will this affect it's economy?

Will the Polish people really welcome the euro?, and perhaps see the costs of everyday life increasing as they have done in all other counties that have already adopted the currency.

Economic Fundamentals Point to Stable Zloty - NBP Chief

Poland's economic fundamentals suggest that the zloty should be one of the most stable currencies in the region, although a a high dose of uncertainty exists, central bank NBP head Sławomir Skrzypek told reporters.

"The fundamental of our economy are strong and the zloty has every basis to be stable, one of the most stable currencies in the region," NBP CEO said, offering caveat for a "level of uncertainty on the market that makes any declaration difficult."

Now the Polish Zloty Returns to Appreciation Trend

Poland's zloty started gaining Monday night and will likely continue down that road locals told PAP.

Positive global sentiment, large IPOs by PKO BP bank and PGE power as well as EU funds conversion all contribute to the zloty returning to appreciation trend, Kredyt Bank FX dealer Robert Kęsicki said.

The trend should hold in the coming days, in Kęsicki's opinion.

It seems that every winter the zloty becomes stronger and very summer weaker - is this a normal trend or what is it that influences this phenomena

Poland’ Euro Adoption in 2014/2015 at the Earliest?

Poland will be able to adopt the euro not before 2014-2015, Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner, a member of the National Bank of Poland's Monetary Policy Council said quoted yesterday by the daily Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

Wasilewska-Trenkner cited the need for meeting Maastricht criteria and a two-year stay in the ERM2 mechanism. She also said that Poland should make necessary amendments in its Constitution ahead of entering the ERM2.

"It is the most important bill but not the only one which should be changed before we start the formal period of preparations for euro adoption, i.e. before we enter ERM2," she added.

The need for a firm date to be established for Poland's entry has never been more important. The constant dialogue and change in dates can be most unnerving to the investors who view Poland as an ideal country to invest in. Continued good GDP results making Poland the leading European economy are encouraging investment and businesses who want to buy from or produce in Poland.

All of these encouraging signs can be stymied if there are continual changes in opinions on the dates of entry to ERM2.

Poland Sees GDP Growth in Q3 Again

Poland's economy is expected to have grown by some 1% in Q3, deputy Finance Minister Ludwik Kotecki told PAP.

Q2 GDP growth amounted to 1.1%. In late August Kotecki said Q3 result would be lower than the Q2 reading.

Once again, Poland looks like being the LEADING economy within Europe with a GDP that many of the other EU nations would just love to be able to show. How can Poland do this every quarter this year to date when others have failed so miserably?

Perhaps it is the mindset of the Polish Government and its determination to learn from the mistakes that the Western nations have made. Perhaps it is the constant message to the Polish people that they must be aware of the dangers around them in overspending.

Whatever the message is, it seems to be working.